夏季黄河流域降水气候特征及其与大气环流的关系   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

邢峰  韩荣青  李维京 《气象》2018,44(10):1295-1305

本文基于1958—2015年夏季黄河流域55个观测站降水量和NCEP/NCAR再分析1高度场等资料,使用MannKendall突变检验、合成分析和Monte Carlo检验等气候统计方法,分析了黄河流域58年夏季降水量的气候变化特征,以及导致其变化的大气环流成因。58年期间,黄河流域夏季降水量总体呈减少趋势,尤其在河套北部有显著性减少趋势,其主要原因是欧亚中高纬度等压面升高、西风带减弱所致;1975年和1996年是黄河流域夏季降水的两个明显年代际气候变化转折点,在1958—1975年期间,黄河流域夏季降水量年际变化大,异常偏多和偏少年出现频次较高,期间欧亚中高纬度及其以南包括黄河流域地区高度场偏低,主要受高空低压系统和较强冷空气影响;在1976—1995年期间,黄河流域大部降水偏多,其主要环流成因为乌拉尔山阻塞高压发展、贝加尔湖到东北亚一带受负高度距平控制高空槽加深,同时,来自南方的暖湿气流输送增强;到1996—2015年最近20年间,乌拉尔山北部环流高度场偏低、里海至贝加尔湖再到东北亚一带高度场一致偏高,黄河流域一带西风带强度和冷空气势力均较弱,流域受高压影响导致大部区域降水偏少。不同时期黄河各流域段降水量与中高纬度阻塞高压以及与西北太平洋副热带高压的相关关系分析进一步说明了上述结论。  相似文献   

贺兰山东麓罕见特大暴雨的预报偏差和可预报性分析     

陈豫英  陈楠  任小芳  王勇 《气象》2018,44(1):159-169

提要:利用常规气象观测资料、银川CD多普勒雷达探测资料和ECMWF、T639、WRF、NCEP/NCAR等模式资料,分析了宁夏气象台漏报的2016年8月21日夜间贺兰山东麓历史罕见特大暴雨天气过程的成因,探讨了重大预报误差之缘由和可预报性,结果表明:(1)ECMWF、T639、WRF三种模式均预报宁夏中北部有15 mm以下的降雨,量级显著偏小是漏报诱因;而ECMWF降雨预报结果明显优于其他模式。(2)2016年8月中下旬西太平洋副热带高压持续偏强、位置偏北,21日达最强,在588dagpm线控制下,592dagpm线从宁夏南部东退,受低层切变线、辐合场和低空急流及贺兰山地形的共同影响,引发了宁夏极为罕见的特大暴雨。当地预报员对于极端暴雨事件预报经验匮乏,对副热带高压强盛、位置偏北的极强暴雨环流形势演变了解和认识欠缺。(3)源于东海的中低层偏东气流在西行中形成东南和南风低空急流,并在贺兰山东麓建立一暖性辐合线,由于贺兰山地形阻挡了气流的移动而产生的绕流、摩擦辐合及迎风波抬升,延长了降雨时间,对暴雨的增幅有促进和加强作用,预报中忽视了贺兰山地形对降雨影响。(4)对暴雨预报有效的物理量场θ_(se500)-θ_(se850)0K、θ_(se500)≥337K和θ_(se850)≥337K、K指数≥38℃、LI≤-3、Q_(700)≥12kg·kg~(-1)等指标掌握应用不熟练。分析结果表明:对于8月21日特大暴雨预报员可提前6h确定暴雨落区、订正降雨量级达到暴雨,可做到过程不漏报,但是经订正后的预报无法报出历史罕见的极端暴雨。  相似文献   

鲁西北连续两次强降水过程对比分析     

杨晓霞  夏凡  张骞  侯淑梅  刘畅 《气象科技》2018,46(3):605-618

利用各种观测资料和NCEP/NCAR 1×1°再分析资料,对2012年7月30日夜间和31日夜间鲁西北连续两天强降雨天气进行诊断和对比分析。结果表明:强降水产生在西风槽前和副热带高压边缘的偏南暖湿气流中,西风槽稳定少动,台风在东南沿海北上,副高加强北抬,为鲁西北连续两天的强降水提供了天气尺度背景。925hPa及以下的低层,来自于渤海的偏东气流和来自于华东沿海的东南气流同时向鲁西北强降水区输送水汽,低层比湿大,CAPE和K指数较高。第1次强降水产生在偏南气流的暖区中,降水强度大,维持时间短。第2次强降水期间,低层有冷空气锲入,把暖湿气流抬升,前期为对流性降水,中后期转为稳定性降水,降水强度小,维持时间较长。850hPa及以下倒槽式切变线和中尺度低涡环流是造成强降水的中尺度影响系统,近地面层来自于渤海的东北气流与来自于东南沿海的东南暖湿气流形成中尺度涡旋,产生气旋式辐合上升,触发对流不稳定能量释放。对流云团在鲁西北形成长形的中尺度对流系统(MCS),稳定少动,有明显的列车效应和后向传播特征。强降水具有较强的日变化,夜间发展增强,白天减弱。  相似文献   

北大西洋多年代际振荡正、负位相期间欧亚夏季副热带波列季节内活动特征及与印度降水的联系     

孙雪倩  李双林  孙即霖  洪晓玮 《大气科学》2018,42(5):1067-1080

利用美国国家环境预测中心与国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）逐日再分析资料,针对北大西洋多年代际振荡（AMO）两个不同位相,对逐候200 hPa经向风异常进行EOF分析,发现在AMO正、负位相期间,欧亚副热带波列的季节内活动存在明显差异。利用超前—滞后回归,对比了不同AMO位相下副热带波列及其相联系的印度夏季降水的季节内活动演变特征,分析有关的大气环流,探究波列影响降水的机制。结果表明:在AMO负位相期间,由格陵兰岛以南北大西洋经大不列颠岛、地中海、黑海—里海向南亚北部传播的副热带波列的季节内演变,在印度中部引起下沉,导致中部及西北部季节内降水减少,波列负位相相反;在AMO正位相期间,副热带波列西起冰岛以南北大西洋经丹麦南部、俄罗斯西部、中亚向南亚东北部传播,对应该波列的季节内演变,辐合上升区在印度中部和东西两侧,使得该区域季节内降水增加,波列负位相相反。于是,AMO通过调制夏季欧亚副热带波列的季节内活动,可以对印度夏季降水的季节内变化空间型及演变发挥显著影响。  相似文献   

副高外围影响下遵义市区域性暴雨的高空形势场特征研究          下载免费PDF全文

杨熠  简茂球  谢和林 《中低纬山地气象》2018,42(6):15-21

利用常规观测资料和NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,发现2007-2016年6～8月有8次区域性暴雨天气过程是由副高东退、引导高空槽东移的大尺度背景条件下,配合低层系统造成的,将其分类后得到三种类型：低涡槽型、高空槽气旋旋转型和高空槽低涡切变型;对每种类型的高空形势进行合成分析,找出了暴雨落区与高空系统、物理量配置之间的关系。  相似文献   

温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合效应及动力机制研究     

侯立春  林振山  何亮 《地理科学》2018,38(1):151-160

基于主要温室气体（CO₂、CH₄和N₂O）强迫因子和石笋δ¹⁸О观测资料（1~2002 年）,分别利用关联性耦合模型和非线性统计-动力学方法,分析温室气体强迫与东亚亚热带季风演变耦合度的时序规律和定量反演模拟温室气体强迫对近2 000 a东亚亚热带季风演变影响的非线性趋势和相对贡献。研究发现：① 温室气体与季风演变耦合度的高低对应季风的强弱变化,即两者耦合作用越强,东亚亚热带季风越强;反之,两者耦合强度越小,东亚亚热带季风越弱;耦合度峰谷值对应季风极强降水和极端干旱时段。② 时序演变规律为：N₂O和CO₂相互作用与季风演变间耦合效应最强,成为东亚亚热带季风演变的主要驱动力。其次,N₂O一次项和CO₂非线性项对季风演变起主要的负反馈调节机制。③ 时序演变阶段上有所不同：1~180年,CH₄因子对季风演变主要起负反馈调节机制;180~1760年和1760~2002年,对季风演变起主要的驱动和调节机制分别为CO₂因子和N₂O因子;但1900年后N₂O和CO₂相互作用与季风演变的耦合驱动效应近百年来明显增强,耦合度在中等-较强（或极强）之间来回波动转换,耦合作用明显增强,在耦合度由较强（或极强）转弱至中等时,东亚亚热带季风也随之减弱。  相似文献   

Detailed measurements during a transient front in a small subtropical estuary     

Mark Trevethan  Hubert Chanson   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2007,73(3-4):735-742

High-resolution measurements of velocity and physio-chemistry were conducted before, during and after the passage of a transient front in a small subtropical system about 2.1 km upstream of the river mouth. Detailed acoustic Doppler velocimetry measurements, conducted continuously at 25 Hz, showed the existence of transverse turbulent shear between 300 s prior to the front passage and 1300 s after. This was associated with an increased level of suspended sediment concentration fluctuations, some transverse shear next to the bed and some surface temperature anomaly.  相似文献   

North Pacific Subtropical Mode Waters Observed in Long XBT Cross Sections along 32.5°N Line     

Kimio Hanawa  Hiroyuki Yoritaka 《Journal of Oceanography》2001,57(6):679-692

The S/V Shoyo, of the Hydrographic Department, Japan Coast Guard, has conducted high-density expendable bathythermograph (XBT) measurements along the 32.5°N line in the North Pacific every year from 1990 to 1993 as a part of the Japanese-World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). These XBT data are analyzed here, focusing on year-to-year variations of the inventory and core layer temperature (CLT) of the North Pacific subtropical mode water (NPSTMW). Large year-to-year changes are found in the NPSTMW CLTs estimated in longitudes between 140°E and 160°E. CLT values were found of 17.4°C in 1990, 17.1°C in 1991, 17.3°C in 1992 and 17.6°C in 1993. Inspection of the wintertime westerlies over the formation area and sea surface temperature distribution revealed that this change in CLT can be qualitatively attributed to the strength of atmospheric cooling in the formation area in the previous winter. Although a large year-to-year variation of NPSTMW inventory was also found, it is hard to state any relationship between CLT and atmospheric forcing. There is a possibility that different observational seasons may affect the inventory. It has also been found that the thermocline depth in 1991 was shallower in the sea area east of 180° than in 1992 and 1993. Associated with this change, the North Pacific central mode water (NPCMW), characterized by thermostad with temperatures ranging from 14°C to 11°C, appears in the sea area east of 180° in the 1992 and 1993 cross sections. The 1993 cross section, which ranged from the Japanese coast to the west coast of North America, possessed another thermostad in the surface layer, with a temperature of about 17°C in the eastern part of the cross section, off California. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

2003年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈美榕 《海洋预报》2005,22(2):77-82

本文综述了2003年西北太平洋上热带气旋活动特征，并对西北太平洋副热带高压特征量及赤道东太平洋海温与常年进行比较和相关分析，从而找出2003年西北太平洋热带气旋活动特征的成因。  相似文献   

Reefs at the edge: coral community structure around Rapa,southernmost French Polynesia          下载免费PDF全文

Mehdi Adjeroud  Carden C. Wallace  Pauline Bosserelle  Claude Payri  Jean‐Louis Menou  Michel Pichon 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(3):565-575

Rapa (27°36′ S, 144°20′ W) is a small (~40 km²) volcanic island isolated in the Southern Austral Archipelago, where direct anthropogenic stressors are extremely limited. Here, we present the results of the first quantitative survey of coral community structure across habitats and depths around the island. Despite its geographical isolation in the depauperate South Central Pacific, its small size and unfavourable environmental conditions (competition with macroalgae, low sea surface temperatures, reduced reef accretion), the diversity of scleractinian corals at Rapa is particularly high (112 species from 32 genera, including 37 species of Acropora) in comparison to other French Polynesian islands and subtropical Pacific locations. Our results indicate that the abundance (>100 colonies per 10 m² recorded at nine of the 17 sampling stations) and cover (>40% at four stations) of corals are relatively high for a marginal reef location. Strong spatial heterogeneity was found, with high variation in diversity, abundance, cover and community composition among stations. Variation in community composition was related to habitat types, with distinct assemblages among fringing reefs within bays, reef formations at bay entrances, and those on the submerged platform surrounding the island. On the platform, a depth gradient was detected, with generic richness, abundance and cover generally greater at deeper stations (18–20 m depth) compared with medium‐depth (10–12 m) and shallow (1–3 m) stations. A gradient was also recorded along bays, with increasing coral diversity and abundance from the bay heads to the bay entrances. The coral community at Rapa was characterized by the presence of several taxa not found in other French Polynesian archipelagos and the rarity of others that are common and abundant in the Society and the Tuamotu islands. Another distinctive feature of reef communities at Rapa is the high cover and dominance of macroalgae, particularly in the shallower parts of the surrounding platform, which probably explains the lower densities of coral colonies recorded there. These characteristics of the diversity and biogeographical composition of coral assemblages at Rapa provide considerable ecological grounds for its conservation.  相似文献